Down the stretch

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E-Villan
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Down the stretch

Postby E-Villan » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:04 pm

If we want to avoid Thursday night, we are going to have to find two more teams to get behind us. The obvious answer to that would be the other two teams we are currently tied with at 5-6, Indiana State and Missouri State. Here is the remaining schedules for the three of us.

UE (5-6): @ILST, VALPO, @MSU, @UNI, LUC, @INST, SIU
MSU (5-6): @LUC, @INST, UE, @SIU, DU, BU, @UNI
INST (5-6): @UNI, MOST, LUC, @DU, SIU, UE, @BU

Head to head, the three of us all have one remaining game with each of us, so the opportunity is there to put a team a game back. Looking at this angle, Indiana State gets both us and MSU at home, MSU gets us at home and a roadie with INST, and we have to take both MSU and INST on the road. Slight nod in the head to head to Indiana State.

All three of us have to go to UNI, never an easy place for anyone to play. All three of us still have a game with Loyola, us and INST get them at home, while MSU has to play in Chicago.

I think Indiana State may have an overall advantage with the remaining schedule. Not by much. Our only positive is we have two games left with teams behind us, and they each only have one. I think we are going to need to win a minimum of 4 to get ahead of both MSU and INST, and possibly 5. In short, we are going to have to knock off both INST and MSU on the road, beat Valpo and SIU at home, and get at least 1 win between ILST, Loyola and UNI....all without Dru.

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Re: Down the stretch

Postby GA Ace » Thu Feb 01, 2018 11:57 pm

E-Villan wrote:If we want to avoid Thursday night, we are going to have to find two more teams to get behind us. The obvious answer to that would be the other two teams we are currently tied with at 5-6, Indiana State and Missouri State. Here is the remaining schedules for the three of us.

UE (5-6): @ILST, VALPO, @MSU, @UNI, LUC, @INST, SIU
MSU (5-6): @LUC, @INST, UE, @SIU, DU, BU, @UNI
INST (5-6): @UNI, MOST, LUC, @DU, SIU, UE, @BU

Head to head, the three of us all have one remaining game with each of us, so the opportunity is there to put a team a game back. Looking at this angle, Indiana State gets both us and MSU at home, MSU gets us at home and a roadie with INST, and we have to take both MSU and INST on the road. Slight nod in the head to head to Indiana State.

All three of us have to go to UNI, never an easy place for anyone to play. All three of us still have a game with Loyola, us and INST get them at home, while MSU has to play in Chicago.

I think Indiana State may have an overall advantage with the remaining schedule. Not by much. Our only positive is we have two games left with teams behind us, and they each only have one. I think we are going to need to win a minimum of 4 to get ahead of both MSU and INST, and possibly 5. In short, we are going to have to knock off both INST and MSU on the road, beat Valpo and SIU at home, and get at least 1 win between ILST, Loyola and UNI....all without Dru.

Nonsense, all we need to do is end the season at .500 or better to qualify and play in the CIT or CBI. Then it will be a truly successful season. Good thing we have the Oakland City and Midway games to fall back on. Just like Coach McCutchan, Coach Simmons is here to hang some more post season banners up for your University of Evansville Purple Aces. /S

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Re: Down the stretch

Postby muni cup14 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:19 am

Maybe Drake will continue there downslide
They have Mo.St,Ill. St,Bradley,and Loyola,all on the road.
So i could see them being 9-9.Not bad for a team that was
picked last.

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pafan
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Re: Down the stretch

Postby pafan » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:35 am

From the seeding probabilities table posted by Hacksaw at MVCFans yesterday, the Aces need 3 wins to have a snowball's chance of avoiding Thursday, or 4 wins for a good chance. 5 or more guarantees avoiding Thursday.
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evilleman
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Re: Down the stretch

Postby evilleman » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:58 am

muni cup14 wrote:Maybe Drake will continue there downslide
They have Mo.St,Ill. St,Bradley,and Loyola,all on the road.
So i could see them being 9-9.Not bad for a team that was
picked last.


I agree. I think that Drake is falling fast.

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Re: Down the stretch

Postby svmar10 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:00 am

Last years 5th place team was 8-10, which is where we'll be if we win our home games. BUT, last year we had 2 teams that were 17-1 at the top which I think means this years middle group will be more cramped together, but if we can win a road game also, then we'll be 9-9, which should insure not being at the bottom 4, Now I'm more confused now than when I started. Just Step up ACES, finish strong and make it easy on us guesstimators.

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Tom Servo
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Re: Down the stretch

Postby Tom Servo » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:08 am

E-Villan wrote:If we want to avoid Thursday night, we are going to have to find two more teams to get behind us. The obvious answer to that would be the other two teams we are currently tied with at 5-6, Indiana State and Missouri State. Here is the remaining schedules for the three of us.

UE (5-6): @ILST, VALPO, @MSU, @UNI, LUC, @INST, SIU
MSU (5-6): @LUC, @INST, UE, @SIU, DU, BU, @UNI
INST (5-6): @UNI, MOST, LUC, @DU, SIU, UE, @BU

Head to head, the three of us all have one remaining game with each of us, so the opportunity is there to put a team a game back. Looking at this angle, Indiana State gets both us and MSU at home, MSU gets us at home and a roadie with INST, and we have to take both MSU and INST on the road. Slight nod in the head to head to Indiana State.

All three of us have to go to UNI, never an easy place for anyone to play. All three of us still have a game with Loyola, us and INST get them at home, while MSU has to play in Chicago.

I think Indiana State may have an overall advantage with the remaining schedule. Not by much. Our only positive is we have two games left with teams behind us, and they each only have one. I think we are going to need to win a minimum of 4 to get ahead of both MSU and INST, and possibly 5. In short, we are going to have to knock off both INST and MSU on the road, beat Valpo and SIU at home, and get at least 1 win between ILST, Loyola and UNI....all without Dru.


Well said

I agree with some of the other posts below that Drake could be another team that falls into the log jam. MSU, Indy St., and Drake - we really need to lose every game possible. I think 9-9 will get us into some sort of tie breaker but I don't think 8-10 will do it.

Hopefully Dru can return for the last few games...that would certainly help. The only game I see on the schedule right now that is pretty much a guaranteed loss is the Illinois State road game. We always play bad there, they always play good against us, and we never match up with them at all. Stranger things have happened, but I'd be shocked if we were even close. The rest of the games...we could win or lose every one of them. Hopefully we can win 4 of them and get to 9-9.
Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be.
- John Wooden

letsgoAces
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Re: Down the stretch

Postby letsgoAces » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:26 am

I liked our chances earlier to avoid a Thursday game with Dru - without him very doubtful. Taylor will have to rise to the occasion and the freshman will have to be awfully good. Hard for me to see that happen. Just pains me at this point to see a tiny glimpse of hope that I had get blown up by the injury of the Aces best player. Once again, I hope I am wrong....

Completely agree with Tom about the ISU- red game. If the Aces lose by less than 15 I will be surprised.

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Re: Down the stretch

Postby muni cup14 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:51 am

I can see Ill.St making a push now that Nindaye is back.He can be a force in the middle at 7 foot or better

NumbersDontLie
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Re: Down the stretch

Postby NumbersDontLie » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:19 am

GA Ace wrote:Nonsense, all we need to do is end the season at .500 or better to qualify and play in the CIT or CBI. Then it will be a truly successful season. Good thing we have the Oakland City and Midway games to fall back on. Just like Coach McCutchan, Coach Simmons is here to hang some more post season banners up for your University of Evansville Purple Aces. /S


While I am not sure I share your cynicism, I have to state that what you said is a worst case scenario for the long term future of the program.

2-5 down the stretch, resulting in a Thursday MVC game. Maybe win, maybe not, but not even close to a Saturday appearance.

Then a 17-16 team (15-16 vs Div 1 opponents) proclaims a successful year and we pay tens of thousands of dollars to host a CIT game at Carson Center.


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