What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

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Austin Ace
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What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby Austin Ace » Sun Feb 11, 2018 6:57 pm

With four games left Evansville is tied for 7th/8th place in the conference standings with Indiana State. They are comfortably ahead of Northern Iowa and Valparaiso (at the moment) who are 4-8. In my opinion Evansville has a pretty hard road to avoid the play-in game. In three of their four remaining games they will be a significant underdog of 4-6 points (in my estimation) with them only being favored in the home finale against Southern Illinois by probably a point.

All of the remaining games are pretty much must win games for different reasons:
    1. They need to win their home games against Loyola and SIU;and
    2. Road games against Northern Iowa and Indiana State are must win games because these are the teams that we need to either keep behind us are put behind us to be one of the top six teams in the league.
We probably need to win at least 3 of the 4 games to have a chance of being in the top six (with a 9-9 record).

So we need to keep Valpo and Northern Iowa behind us; We need to put two other teams behind us (with Indiana State and Bradley or Missouri State being the most likely teams).

According to the Sagarin Ratings this is how I see the line on our remaining games
(not factoring in the Dru Smith factor of whether he plays or not):

@ Northern Iowa - UE a 5.8 point underdog
Loyola - UE a 4.85 point underdog
@Indiana State - UE a 3.92 point underdog
Southern Illinois - UE favored by 0.82 points

Thoughts on whether Evansville can pull this out.

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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby Ad1770 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:08 pm

Unlikely. I believe the most likely scenario is 0-4 to finish the 6-12 in conference like I predicted earlier this season. However, most winnable will be @Northern Iowa, followed by Southern Illinois, @ISU, then Loyola. I don’t see any way the team gets out of Thursday at this point.
TIME TO GET IT RIGHT

acecard
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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby acecard » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:15 pm

Austin Ace wrote:With four games left Evansville is tied for 7th/8th place in the conference standings with Indiana State. They are comfortably ahead of Northern Iowa and Valparaiso (at the moment) who are 4-8. In my opinion Evansville has a pretty hard road to avoid the play-in game. In three of their four remaining games they will be a significant underdog of 4-6 points (in my estimation) with them only being favored in the home finale against Southern Illinois by probably a point.

All of the remaining games are pretty much must win games for different reasons:
    1. They need to win their home games against Loyola and SIU;and
    2. Road games against Northern Iowa and Indiana State are must win games because these are the teams that we need to either keep behind us are put behind us to be one of the top six teams in the league.
We probably need to win at least 3 of the 4 games to have a chance of being in the top six (with a 9-9 record).

So we need to keep Valpo and Northern Iowa behind us; We need to put two other teams behind us (with Indiana State and Bradley or Missouri State being the most likely teams).

According to the Sagarin Ratings this is how I see the line on our remaining games
(not factoring in the Dru Smith factor of whether he plays or not):

@ Northern Iowa - UE a 5.8 point underdog
Loyola - UE a 4.85 point underdog
@Indiana State - UE a 3.92 point underdog
Southern Illinois - UE favored by 0.82 points

Thoughts on whether Evansville can pull this out.

Not a snowballs chance on the equator.

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Tom Servo
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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby Tom Servo » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:35 pm

I agree Austin, 9-9 is what it’s going to take. Thanks for laying it all out.

Unfortunately I agree with AD and Acecard...I don’t think we are going to be able to do it. I think the order AD laid out is probably the most likely games we can win. I think we will win one more game. If we do win the next game it might give them more confidence and they could pull off more than one. The next game has to be a win for even a prayer of avoiding Thurs.

At least that’s my opinion.
Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be.
- John Wooden

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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby acesfan27 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:32 pm

Not going to happen specially the way we played on the road getting out rebounded by nearly 30 that’s pathetic and ridiculous we may very well go 0 and 4 to end conference play if we play like that I will be at the last two home games the only game I see us having a chance would be against Siu on senior day but I would not bet on it just need to pack it all in when this season is over and recover and make some changes this coaching staff has done some dumb things this year like bringing Dru back the whole program needs a shake up before no one comes!

Austin Ace
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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby Austin Ace » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:35 pm

So let's concentrate on the Northern Iowa game on Tuesday and see if we still have a chance to avoid the play-in game.

One game at a time. Who knows - that is why they play the games.

I agree that it is a long shot but this team has surprised before.

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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby IBLEEDPURPLE » Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:14 pm

Austin Ace wrote:With four games left Evansville is tied for 7th/8th place in the conference standings with Indiana State. They are comfortably ahead of Northern Iowa and Valparaiso (at the moment) who are 4-8. In my opinion Evansville has a pretty hard road to avoid the play-in game. In three of their four remaining games they will be a significant underdog of 4-6 points (in my estimation) with them only being favored in the home finale against Southern Illinois by probably a point.

All of the remaining games are pretty much must win games for different reasons:
    1. They need to win their home games against Loyola and SIU;and
    2. Road games against Northern Iowa and Indiana State are must win games because these are the teams that we need to either keep behind us are put behind us to be one of the top six teams in the league.
We probably need to win at least 3 of the 4 games to have a chance of being in the top six (with a 9-9 record).

So we need to keep Valpo and Northern Iowa behind us; We need to put two other teams behind us (with Indiana State and Bradley or Missouri State being the most likely teams).

According to the Sagarin Ratings this is how I see the line on our remaining games
(not factoring in the Dru Smith factor of whether he plays or not):

@ Northern Iowa - UE a 5.8 point underdog
Loyola - UE a 4.85 point underdog
@Indiana State - UE a 3.92 point underdog
Southern Illinois - UE favored by 0.82 points

Thoughts on whether Evansville can pull this out.


No chance if we have to win 3 or 4 of the remaining games. I think we are likely to go 1-3 or best case 2-2 and finish 8th or 9th, pretty much as predicted. I think it was foolish to bring Dru back in the Missouri State game vs saving him for the upcoming games and especially for the conference tournament which is all we can hang our hats on to this point. What changed the thinking vs the Duke game when anyone who was not 100% did not play in that game?

I think Missouri State and Loyola are going to have to be favored in St Louis the way the two have been playing, especially of late for Missouri State. I know our coaches and players will never quit but like so many years in the past we are struggling heading down the stretch. We seem to peak early as in before conference play even gets underway and then it's all downhill from there. Hope the Aces shock us all and find a way to win it all in St Louis. Never hurts to be a dreamer :) Go Aces !

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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby CoachD88 » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:32 pm

Sorry....but unless we are blessed by a miracle ( which includes everyone back healthy as a horse...which includes Dru, Boo and Soloman).....we are destined for a Thursday game. And if our road performances hold true...we are screwed. Hate it...but our road record and performances speak for themselves and we are plain not good. We struggle like hell to win Home games let alone win games on the road. I was an optimist at the beginning of the year...but we have not shown much if any improvement since the the Cancun tournament. I love our Aces...but we flat are not good. There is no way someone can say "That is the Valley". I have waited another 24 hours and laid off the caffeine during that time and my feelings on the the last game have not changed......we are not good and we are not going to be good the rest of the year . Again, unless we have something miraculous happen..welcome to Thursday and I hope the new recruits and returnees ( hopefully Soloman and Ryan) bring something more positive for next year.
Just my opinion...I could be wrong!

sect.3purple
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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby sect.3purple » Sun Feb 11, 2018 11:50 pm

Sadly, I don't see us winning another game except maybe the last home game. I also don't see the fans getting any info anytime soon on Dru. What are they going to say to justify their decision to play him if this is an aggravation to his foot problem and he came back too soon? If we are so desperate to avoid ending up in the bottom four, it shows how difficult this team's struggle has been all year and probably indicates how hard it would be to even win 3 games and the championship this year. Another year, same frustrating situation.....only thing that can possibly stop this recurring theme is to have big changes.

I keep hoping for a move to change things from the top down instead of always having to hope for a miracle in March!

muni cup14
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Re: What the Aces need to do to avoid the play-in game

Postby muni cup14 » Mon Feb 12, 2018 5:17 am

Depending on Drus statis,im guessing we will go
1-3 or 0-4


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