2018 Team

Discussions of all the Aces sports
mybigpurplebrain
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby mybigpurplebrain » Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:15 am

pafan wrote:
mybigpurplebrain wrote:I don’t see a chance of last place .jmho


Who do you think projects below the Aces? MSU, Drake, Evansville are all in the middle of complete rebuilds. Aces have 6 returning players, but only a couple who have substantial experience. MSU has Church, Dixon and Kreklow and a bunch of new guys. Drake has only two returners who weren't redshirted last season.

One of these three teams will almost certainly get the #10 vote in the preseason poll. I'd probably vote Drake for that position if they gave me a choice today. I don't have a vote.

But I do think it is possible that the Aces receive that #10 honor when the preseason poll comes out in October.


Fortunately preseason polls don’t mean ANYTHING.
I don’t follow the other teams . I think after Loyola it’s wide open .
Do I think Aces will finish # 2 or 3 probably not. Do I think they will finish 10th, not a chance.

purpleredbird
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby purpleredbird » Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:16 am

I really see three groupings of teams in the MVC this year.

Group 1
ISUr
Loyoloa
SIU
Bradley (on the border between group 1 and 2)

Group 2
Valpo
UNI
ISUb
Missouri State (on the border between group 2 and 3)

Group 3
Evansville
Drake

I would personally put us 9 at this time, but feel that by the time we get into the Valley season they may knock off a few teams in Group 2 at home. My hope is that the team does not lose confidence if things are rough to start with. I really don't see us competing with Group 1 this year, except maybe Bradley who I think will have a hard time scoring just like last year.

I do hope that Coach M gets us on the right track. So hard to tell about a recruiting class that was all signed so late in the signing period. Hoping there are a gem or two here. Returners I think will be good role players on most Valley teams, but not sure if they would the "stars". Living in Normal, I'm pretty sure our returners would have trouble finding any playing time for the Redbirds. They appear to be loaded this year. Would say the same for SIU.

Just one man's opinion.

ncace
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby ncace » Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:27 pm

I agree with purpleredbird about Loyola and ISUr. Both will be pretty tough to beat, home and away. They've had recent success, and they'll be confident. Everything else is up for grabs. Anyone can get a win against a decent opponent at home, and injuries will play a big part. I like our team, for what we've had to deal with; a short recruiting period, a new coaching staff, and frankly, a diminished reputation among our peers. However, if we can recruit the 3-4 spots we need to fill next year (PG, a BIG, and a couple of wings), I REALLY like our chances in '19-20.

One thing will prevail in the MVC. It sounds like, in Walter's system, we would like to run a bit and shoot quickly if we have the shot. We have the shooters. However, there are some teams in the conference that are quite content to have a 55-60 point game EVERY NIGHT. So, we'll need to be a good defensive team to consistently compete, when opponents use the full clock on their possessions. Still, it's going to be fun watching the foundation being built at Ford this year. Go ACES!!

UE11
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby UE11 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:42 am

mybigpurplebrain wrote:
pafan wrote:
mybigpurplebrain wrote:I don’t see a chance of last place .jmho


Who do you think projects below the Aces? MSU, Drake, Evansville are all in the middle of complete rebuilds. Aces have 6 returning players, but only a couple who have substantial experience. MSU has Church, Dixon and Kreklow and a bunch of new guys. Drake has only two returners who weren't redshirted last season.

One of these three teams will almost certainly get the #10 vote in the preseason poll. I'd probably vote Drake for that position if they gave me a choice today. I don't have a vote.

But I do think it is possible that the Aces receive that #10 honor when the preseason poll comes out in October.


Fortunately preseason polls don’t mean ANYTHING.
I don’t follow the other teams . I think after Loyola it’s wide open .
Do I think Aces will finish # 2 or 3 probably not. Do I think they will finish 10th, not a chance.


Not saying you are wrong, but curious what your reasoning is that lead to the conclusion there is no chance UE finishes 10th next year. Looking at it objectivity, I would say there is more than a decent chance a team returning only 40% of its minutes played and 30% of its scoring from the year before, with a coach that has never been the top guy other than preseason camps won't win many games. Also, lets not forget Walter has had 4 months to put together more than half of a roster. While I hope every newcomer is a top level MVC contributor, I can't help but think at least some of these guys won't be around to finish all of their eligibility.

9th or 10th seem pretty reasonable to me. Although, to me a least, wins and losses mean almost nothing next year. I'm much more interested in seeing a shift in culture and philosophies than wins. Staying with the status quo for the past 10+ years would have yielded more wins this year than changing. I'm glad there was a change.

NumbersDontLie
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby NumbersDontLie » Sun Jul 29, 2018 8:59 am

Last year the Aces had 2 P5 caliber guards and could only win 7 conference games.

That’s a glass half-full or half-empty statement.

Does that mean the conference is so tough we could only scrape 7 wins? Or did the style of play and substitution patterns cause the talent to underperform?

I can’t wait to see the new look Aces this November.

Aces & Eights
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby Aces & Eights » Sun Jul 29, 2018 9:13 am

NumbersDontLie wrote:Last year the Aces had 2 P5 caliber guards and could only win 7 conference games.

That’s a glass half-full or half-empty statement.

Does that mean the conference is so tough we could only scrape 7 wins? Or did the style of play and substitution patterns cause the talent to underperform?

I can’t wait to see the new look Aces this November.

I think the style and substitution (and injuries) was the cause for last year's conference record. I think it also will be a major factor in an uptick in wins this season. The new quick look offense should generate more points from a larger number of players that spend an acceptable amount of time on the floor due to better substitution. In three words MORE MVC WINS.

acecard
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby acecard » Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:52 am

UE11 wrote:
mybigpurplebrain wrote:
pafan wrote:
Who do you think projects below the Aces? MSU, Drake, Evansville are all in the middle of complete rebuilds. Aces have 6 returning players, but only a couple who have substantial experience. MSU has Church, Dixon and Kreklow and a bunch of new guys. Drake has only two returners who weren't redshirted last season.

One of these three teams will almost certainly get the #10 vote in the preseason poll. I'd probably vote Drake for that position if they gave me a choice today. I don't have a vote.

But I do think it is possible that the Aces receive that #10 honor when the preseason poll comes out in October.


Fortunately preseason polls don’t mean ANYTHING.
I don’t follow the other teams . I think after Loyola it’s wide open .
Do I think Aces will finish # 2 or 3 probably not. Do I think they will finish 10th, not a chance.


Not saying you are wrong, but curious what your reasoning is that lead to the conclusion there is no chance UE finishes 10th next year. Looking at it objectivity, I would say there is more than a decent chance a team returning only 40% of its minutes played and 30% of its scoring from the year before, with a coach that has never been the top guy other than preseason camps won't win many games. Also, lets not forget Walter has had 4 months to put together more than half of a roster. While I hope every newcomer is a top level MVC contributor, I can't help but think at least some of these guys won't be around to finish all of their eligibility.

9th or 10th seem pretty reasonable to me. Although, to me a least, wins and losses mean almost nothing next year. I'm much more interested in seeing a shift in culture and philosophies than wins. Staying with the status quo for the past 10+ years would have yielded more wins this year than changing. I'm glad there was a change.

This is an excellent post, and certainly reflects my views on the subject.

PurpleWhiskers
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby PurpleWhiskers » Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:16 pm

UE11 wrote:Not saying you are wrong, but curious what your reasoning is that lead to the conclusion there is no chance UE finishes 10th next year. Looking at it objectivity, I would say there is more than a decent chance a team returning only 40% of its minutes played and 30% of its scoring from the year before, with a coach that has never been the top guy other than preseason camps won't win many games. Also, lets not forget Walter has had 4 months to put together more than half of a roster. While I hope every newcomer is a top level MVC contributor, I can't help but think at least some of these guys won't be around to finish all of their eligibility.

9th or 10th seem pretty reasonable to me. Although, to me a least, wins and losses mean almost nothing next year. I'm much more interested in seeing a shift in culture and philosophies than wins. Staying with the status quo for the past 10+ years would have yielded more wins this year than changing. I'm glad there was a change.


For the most part I agree. However, I would caution projecting this season by using returning minutes and scoring from Martyball as a metric. Under Martyball the moment the designated shooter graduates (Ely, Colt, DJ, Jaylon, Taylor) the Aces lose 30% of their scoring with a single graduation. That doesn't mean the returning bench players like Hall, Noah and Evan would not have scored much more if they were permitted to. We just don't know. Also, while the Aces lost Blake's 37 minutes per game. Blake's minutes helped empty the Ford Center and if he could return this year only a tiny few of us would believe that his returning minutes would be a positive thing. In short, we have several returning players who deserved the lion's share of Blake's minutes last season. Any one of them can achieve more than Blake ever did.

It has been a liability for Coach Walter to try and fill a roster late in the season. His second year of recruiting will be the tell. That said, not every late signee is a picked-over also-ran. There is no reason that Romeo Langford couldn't have committed last October. He waited until after the season ended. I would venture to say that if the Aces could have had their pick of all the players who signed after April 1st they would be conference championship contenders immediately.

UE11
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby UE11 » Sun Jul 29, 2018 6:50 pm

PurpleWhiskers wrote:
UE11 wrote:Not saying you are wrong, but curious what your reasoning is that lead to the conclusion there is no chance UE finishes 10th next year. Looking at it objectivity, I would say there is more than a decent chance a team returning only 40% of its minutes played and 30% of its scoring from the year before, with a coach that has never been the top guy other than preseason camps won't win many games. Also, lets not forget Walter has had 4 months to put together more than half of a roster. While I hope every newcomer is a top level MVC contributor, I can't help but think at least some of these guys won't be around to finish all of their eligibility.

9th or 10th seem pretty reasonable to me. Although, to me a least, wins and losses mean almost nothing next year. I'm much more interested in seeing a shift in culture and philosophies than wins. Staying with the status quo for the past 10+ years would have yielded more wins this year than changing. I'm glad there was a change.


For the most part I agree. However, I would caution projecting this season by using returning minutes and scoring from Martyball as a metric. Under Martyball the moment the designated shooter graduates (Ely, Colt, DJ, Jaylon, Taylor) the Aces lose 30% of their scoring with a single graduation. That doesn't mean the returning bench players like Hall, Noah and Evan would not have scored much more if they were permitted to. We just don't know. Also, while the Aces lost Blake's 37 minutes per game. Blake's minutes helped empty the Ford Center and if he could return this year only a tiny few of us would believe that his returning minutes would be a positive thing. In short, we have several returning players who deserved the lion's share of Blake's minutes last season. Any one of them can achieve more than Blake ever did.

It has been a liability for Coach Walter to try and fill a roster late in the season. His second year of recruiting will be the tell. That said, not every late signee is a picked-over also-ran. There is no reason that Romeo Langford couldn't have committed last October. He waited until after the season ended. I would venture to say that if the Aces could have had their pick of all the players who signed after April 1st they would be conference championship contenders immediately.


While I agree the former staff’s style could skew averages, I don’t think it is debatable that Taylor and Smith were upper level MVC talents that will be difficult to replace.

Langford may have waited until the spring to commit, but he also could have gone to just about every program in the country. How many other offers did the players Walter signed have before committing here? Not sure using Langford as an example of a late commit is really an applicable comparison here.

Finally, how about we let Walter coach say, 3 games as a head coach before we start expecting conference championships.

PurpleWhiskers
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Re: 2018 Team

Postby PurpleWhiskers » Mon Jul 30, 2018 12:29 pm

UE11 wrote:
PurpleWhiskers wrote:
UE11 wrote:Not saying you are wrong, but curious what your reasoning is that lead to the conclusion there is no chance UE finishes 10th next year. Looking at it objectivity, I would say there is more than a decent chance a team returning only 40% of its minutes played and 30% of its scoring from the year before, with a coach that has never been the top guy other than preseason camps won't win many games. Also, lets not forget Walter has had 4 months to put together more than half of a roster. While I hope every newcomer is a top level MVC contributor, I can't help but think at least some of these guys won't be around to finish all of their eligibility.

9th or 10th seem pretty reasonable to me. Although, to me a least, wins and losses mean almost nothing next year. I'm much more interested in seeing a shift in culture and philosophies than wins. Staying with the status quo for the past 10+ years would have yielded more wins this year than changing. I'm glad there was a change.


For the most part I agree. However, I would caution projecting this season by using returning minutes and scoring from Martyball as a metric. Under Martyball the moment the designated shooter graduates (Ely, Colt, DJ, Jaylon, Taylor) the Aces lose 30% of their scoring with a single graduation. That doesn't mean the returning bench players like Hall, Noah and Evan would not have scored much more if they were permitted to. We just don't know. Also, while the Aces lost Blake's 37 minutes per game. Blake's minutes helped empty the Ford Center and if he could return this year only a tiny few of us would believe that his returning minutes would be a positive thing. In short, we have several returning players who deserved the lion's share of Blake's minutes last season. Any one of them can achieve more than Blake ever did.

It has been a liability for Coach Walter to try and fill a roster late in the season. His second year of recruiting will be the tell. That said, not every late signee is a picked-over also-ran. There is no reason that Romeo Langford couldn't have committed last October. He waited until after the season ended. I would venture to say that if the Aces could have had their pick of all the players who signed after April 1st they would be conference championship contenders immediately.


While I agree the former staff’s style could skew averages, I don’t think it is debatable that Taylor and Smith were upper level MVC talents that will be difficult to replace.

Langford may have waited until the spring to commit, but he also could have gone to just about every program in the country. How many other offers did the players Walter signed have before committing here? Not sure using Langford as an example of a late commit is really an applicable comparison here.

Finally, how about we let Walter coach say, 3 games as a head coach before we start expecting conference championships.


I doubt that you can think of many upper level teams that complete their recruiting in the Fall signing period. Signing in the Spring is not proof that you are an inferior player to those who sign in the Fall. It only means that you made up your mind later than someone else. A healthy Dru Smith was a force with UE. Ryan Taylor was a lackadaisical defender and emotionless on the floor. But he was a great shooter who will be greater at Northwestern where he isn't as likely to be double teamed for 40 minutes. Shooters by committee can replace Taylor. Replacing the defensive grit of Smith is another story but Smith had no steals while wearing a boot. Bottom line: Taylor and Smith may be P5 players now but together they had zero championships while they were here.

And I didn't write that Walter can compete for a championship before playing three games. I did write that he could if, if, he would have signed the very best players available in April. That didn't happen so you should not imagine that I've predicted instant greatness. I don't have a clue how the MVC standings will look in March. The other 9 teams also have new recruits and will be hit with injuries at some point and I doubt that anyone has more than a sketchy knowledge of how all that fits together. So for now, I am predicting only that UE will place somewhere at or between 1st place and 10th. Others will offer only wild guesses based upon the past performances of rosters that no longer exist in their prior form.


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