Will the Aces finish last?

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby Ad1770 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:46 pm

Short answer. No. Even without DeAndre, I have them finishing 6th in the Valley this year. Reason you will say I am crazy and what not, but I really don’t care. Let’s begin.

The bottom of the Valley will be a log jam this year. That said, here is how I see it.

10. Drake- Double D got hired late into a job that the cupboard was pretty much left bare. Late season recruiting hurts, and replacing most of the roster into May is never fun. Rough year here.

9. Valparaiso- The darling of the Valley last year (being picked as high as 5th, even by some on here) is at it again, as most people are picking them to finish around 5th again this year. Sorry, but they are at least another year from getting out of the PIG game. Here is my problem. This is the same roster that won 6 in conference last year. The incoming players they have have not proven they can play in the Valley, and most were actually late pick ups as well, but everyone seems to want to give them the benefit of the doubt that they don’t want to give our incoming players. Throw in the fact that they lost their top assistant coach and recruiter, and dark days could be looming.

8. Missouri State- Does anyone outside of the MSU fan base have complete trust in HCDF? I’m not completely sure what there is to get fired up about from his resume. I think he has some nice pieces, but needs time to put it together, if he can.

7. Indiana State- Lost Brenton Scott. They do still have Barnes, but do they have someone to be his Jordan Barnes as he was to Scott? Not to sure on that. Plus, two in season transfers are likely to throw the team chemistry in disarray, as players will have to learn new roles in games, and a rotation that could be tossed into turmoil.

6. Evansville- New style, new system, new life. Based off of returning players, we have enough to come out on top of this log jam, and avoid a PIG game. For the most part, defensive points per possession should be similar to what it was last season with all of the returning players coming back. The difference is that with the new offensive system, teams will get more possessions. It is a fact. The team will be more free on the offensive end, and a bump in scoring will occur. This will not be the robotic, star system we are used to seeing. I believe we will average 80 a game this year.

5. Illinois State
4. Bradley
3. Northern Iowa (surprise team right here)
2. Southern Illinois
1. Loyola

There you have it folks.

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby pafan » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:17 pm

That's a fair analysis.

Personally the reason I see MSU ahead of Drake and Evansville is the quality of the returning players, and nothing to do with Dana Ford. Church, Dixon and Kreklow are a pretty good foundation who should be able to give 30-35 quality minutes a night.

Drake is not in a good situation, with only one or two players returning, and I wrote several weeks ago that Drake would be my #10 pick for that reason.

I'm not even sure who the Aces top returning player is. If you made me pick someone, I'd pick Frederking? Maybe KJ Riley? With a coaching philosophy so dramatically different, I'm not sure how to slot guys into spots. I think if it clicks beautifully, 6th is realistic.

I had not really considered ISU blue as a Thursday contender, but I definitely see your point there.
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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby purpleredbird » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:41 pm

Pretty good analysis overall. I'll stick with my initial thoughts.

1. ISUr - Toss-up between them and SIU.
2. SIU - If Bol was more proven to be back, could see them above ISUr. Love Barry as a marketer for the conference, but not a big fan as a game coach.
3. Loyola - Good top 4, but not sure beyond that.
4. UNI - Just a gut feel.
5. Bradley - I think their inability to score will come back to bite them in a few games.
6. Mo State - I think the 3 returners put them a bit ahead of the others.
7. Valpo - Have to prove to me they can post wins through the grueling MVC schedule.
8. ISUb - Barnes puts them above the others.
9. Evansville - Toss up between Drake and us. I think we will be more competitive as the year goes along.
10. Drake - New coach needs time. Cupboard was pretty bare, like UEs.

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby 211N-69 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:09 pm

Are we talking a dismal 10th or just a team that is a couple of breaks away from winning 8 Valley games?
Comparing it to the Valpo team last year that was probably better than its finish, does the UE team start out bad and get better at the end, which would suggest that being a PIG team is not the end of the world.
But this roster is new and the system untested. The Valley isn't known to be a pushover league even for the best of them.
Personally, I don't think they have the size and depth to compete -- not yet. But they won't go 0-18, so there's hope.

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby Tom Servo » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:11 pm

Good points in the above posts

Here is what I’m going to go with
1. Illinois St. - To me, they have the most talent. I am not a fan of Muller, obviously he can recruit, but he has underachieved in the past when he has had superior talent.
2. Loyola - Good core coming back and a solid recruiting class on paper.
3. SIU - They had a pretty good year last year and have a lot of returning pieces.
4. Bradley - Lot of guys coming back, this is a big year for Wardle.
5. Indiana State - I think they will be better without Scott, sometimes they got Martyball disease and watched him jack up terrible shots while some of the better guys stood and watched. Plus they add Butler transfer and another transfer guard.
6. Valpo - They cane on stronger as the season went along and add transfer from a Providence, just a guess but I think they improve this year. Could be wrong though.
7. Evansville - optimistic pick here!
8. Missouri State - no Idea
9. UNI - I just don’t see much here, I hope this happens because I despise their style of play. More teams are trying to get away from the ugly ball style.
10. Drake

Probably completely off but that’s my uneducated guess
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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby SI_Acesfan » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:51 pm

We are a blank slate to other the coaches, which may help to offset our inexperience. It will be interesting to watch the contrasting styles butt heads. Since the other MVC teams tend to play at a slower pace, it will interesting to watch the moves and countermoves in trying to dictate pace.

I will predict this just for fun:

We will win a couple of shockers against the top 4 by double digits. We will win a couple of games where our opponent drops a 15-20 point second half lead due to the pace and Noah/Feehan/Kuhlman completely losing their mind from behind the arc. We will have some really bad losses as well (although I think it is physically impossible for anything to be worse than the Duke game). It will be a wild ride in both directions.

I think we tend to overlook Marty Hill and he will surprise us.

I will put us at #8, winning a tie breaker with Valpo.

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby svmar10 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:08 pm

Avoid the play-In, win a tournament game, Coach of the year!

I'll check back in March.

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby svmar10 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 8:11 pm

I'm sorry, I didn't answer the question......NO

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby letsgoAces » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:33 am

I had originally believed that with Deandre and Shea in the lineup at the same time could provide the Aces enough potential to steal some games they may not have won otherwise. Obviously, with Deandre no longer eligible this season my expectations have dropped considerably. Aces look very weak upfront. John Hall, DC, and Kuhlman will have to come up quite large for the Aces to escape the cellar. I do believe Evansville's guard play could end up being "fairly adequate" if Noah and Shea will have the type of years I think they may have, and Givance can handle the point as a freshman (very tall order),

I am completely on board with Coach McCarty and will be attending as many games as I can this season. I look forward to seeing an enjoyable brand of basketball and making the Aces relevant again. This year we are just laying out a blueprint. It will still be fun....but not too many wins. So, my answer to the question is yes...I do believe the Aces will finish last this season.

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Re: Will the Aces finish last?

Postby PurpleWhiskers » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:50 am

I don't believe that a coaching staff that includes all four, McCarty, Graves, Lickliter and Commodore, would finish last in anything. We have the best coaching staff in the MVC and coaching matters as we should have all learned in the lost decade that just ended.

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