This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

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UE11
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This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby UE11 » Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:00 pm

I’ve heard a lot of talk recently about UE’s youth and lack and experience. People say give these guys a couple of years, we will be winners by the time the current freshmen class are juniors. I understand what you all are saying and would really like to believe you, but it seems as though I’ve heard this story before. I went back and looked at the numbers for players that have played under Marty for four seasons. The results, although not at all overly shocking, do not paint a pretty picture of player development under the current head coach.

By my count, in seven full seasons as head coach, Simmons has had eight players complete four seasons with him (Ryan, Holmes, PVT, Hopf, Jones, Lacey, Cox, and Taylor). On the other hand, eight players with four years of eligibility have failed to play all of them out all of them at UE under Marty (Sawvell, Nelson, Jahr, Kaylon Williams, Haarsma, Derek Johnson, CJ Erikson, and Zach House). Bryan Bouchie and Monie Hudson also failed to play out the remaining years of their eligibility under Simmons.

Of those players that did complete four years under Simmons, few saw significant gains in production during their tenure at UE. To account for increased production with increased playing time, I divided per game statistics by minutes per game and multiplied by 40 to get the statistic per 40 minutes.

As you may have guessed, Colt Ryan has had the greatest scoring production increase thus far under Marty. His per 40 scoring increased 48% from his freshman to senior campaign, jumping from 16.43 to 24.36; assists went from 3.4 to 4.85 (43%); and steals went from 1.25 to 1.82 (46%) although he did have a decreases from his junior to senior seasons (2.09 to 1.82). He rebounding numbers fell from 4.99 to 4.36 (-12%). Ryan’s playing time actually decreased from his freshmen to senior seasons, going from 35.3 to 33. His raw scoring average went from 14.5 to 20.1 PPG. That is a pretty respectable gain.

After Colt, productivity gains start to drop of pretty quickly. Technically Denver Holmes saw the next best scoring gain by going from 10.48 to 14.77 points per forty minutes, but he was a little used player his freshmen year only appearing is 26 games and averaging 8.4 minutes per contest. He actually regressed his junior year, going from 14.08 PP40 to 12.38 PP40 before rebounding his senior season.

The rest of the players are pretty similar. Here is an abbreviated version of the stats:

Troy Taylor has good gains in rebounds but not much else.
Per Forty Points – 7.19, 7.78, 8.53, 9.39
Per Forty Assists – 5.71, 6.39, 5.15, 5.31
Per Forty Rebounds – 6.64, 6.94, 7.21, 9.39

Ned Cox showed very little statistical improvement
Per Forty Points – 13.75, 13.39, 14.96, 14.45
Per Forty Assists – 3.75, 2.75, 4.88, 4.01

Kavon Lacey had a minor improvement in assists.
Per Forty Points – 8.16, 9.13, 7.88, 8.23
Per Forty Assists – 3.67, 4.13, 4.70, 4.68

Lewis Jones showed very little statistical improvement and actually regressed when it came to rebounding.
Per Forty Points – 10.41, 13.33, 12.25, 11.35
Per Forty Assists – 1.11, 0.74, 0.92, 2.05
Per Forty Rebounds – 8.22, 6.30, 5.55, 4.47

Clint Hopf had a similar story as Lewis Jones
Per Forty Points – 11.76, 10.43, 13.07, 13.11
Per Forty Rebounds – 8.24, 8.12, 9.25, 7.43

PVT had decent gains in points but declined in rebounding
Per Forty Points – 10.46, 11.5, 9.09, 14.55
Per Forty Rebounds – 2.23, 1.34, 0.73, 0.91

Looking at these numbers, I can’t help but be a little skeptical when I hear claims that we will have a significantly better team as the current group of players matriculate through the program. Additionally, if history is any indicator, there is about a 50% chance a four year player that enters UE will compete all four years, so the current crop of freshmen and sophomores could have a significantly different look in the next 2-3 years. Only time will tell, but it is tough to think that anything other than a year like we had last year with a senior laden team is the ceiling for the UE program under the current staff.

PS – I have an Excel spreadsheet with both raw and per forty statistics for each player’s for year career with games played, MPG, PPG, FG%, 3FG%, FT%, APG, RPG, BPG, and SPG if anyone is interested.

David Goldenberg
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby David Goldenberg » Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:06 pm

Goodness these new threads are the same thing every time.

People on this board fall into two trains of thought:

1. Players need to develop. Marty is the right man for the job. UE is going in the right direction.

or

2. Players have the talent. Marty is not using it wisely. UE is going in the wrong direction.


Argue it wither way until you are blue in the face. Statistics can be used in either favor. Just know that no one on the interwebz is going to change their mind on the topic, no matter how much arguing or debating you do or statistics you throw out.

Not calling you out UE11 ... this is my "public service announcement" for everyone!

This covers about every other post on this forum and about the last 5 pages of every game thread.

:shockue:

fg4ster
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby fg4ster » Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:18 pm

David Goldenberg wrote:Goodness these new threads are the same thing every time.

People on this board fall into two trains of thought:

1. Players need to develop. Marty is the right man for the job. UE is going in the right direction.

or

2. Players have the talent. Marty is not using it wisely. UE is going in the wrong direction.


Argue it wither way until you are blue in the face. Statistics can be used in either favor. Just know that no one on the interwebz is going to change their mind on the topic, no matter how much arguing or debating you do or statistics you throw out.

Not calling you out UE11 ... this is my "public service announcement" for everyone!

This covers about every other post on this forum and about the last 5 pages of every game thread.

:shockue:


Ha! Of course! That's what message boards are made for! :lol:

David Goldenberg
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby David Goldenberg » Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:22 pm

fg4ster wrote:Ha! Of course! That's what message boards are made for! :lol:


I guess. Seems pointless. I enjoy using these boards to post up the positives I see in games. If it is not positive, I usually keep my mouth shut. :D

Big Ace
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby Big Ace » Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:00 pm

UE11 wrote:I’ve heard a lot of talk recently about UE’s youth and lack and experience. People say give these guys a couple of years, we will be winners by the time the current freshmen class are juniors. I understand what you all are saying and would really like to believe you, but it seems as though I’ve heard this story before. I went back and looked at the numbers for players that have played under Marty for four seasons. The results, although not at all overly shocking, do not paint a pretty picture of player development under the current head coach.

By my count, in seven full seasons as head coach, Simmons has had eight players complete four seasons with him (Ryan, Holmes, PVT, Hopf, Jones, Lacey, Cox, and Taylor). On the other hand, eight players with four years of eligibility have failed to play all of them out all of them at UE under Marty (Sawvell, Nelson, Jahr, Kaylon Williams, Haarsma, Derek Johnson, CJ Erikson, and Zach House). Bryan Bouchie and Monie Hudson also failed to play out the remaining years of their eligibility under Simmons.

Of those players that did complete four years under Simmons, few saw significant gains in production during their tenure at UE. To account for increased production with increased playing time, I divided per game statistics by minutes per game and multiplied by 40 to get the statistic per 40 minutes.

As you may have guessed, Colt Ryan has had the greatest scoring production increase thus far under Marty. His per 40 scoring increased 48% from his freshman to senior campaign, jumping from 16.43 to 24.36; assists went from 3.4 to 4.85 (43%); and steals went from 1.25 to 1.82 (46%) although he did have a decreases from his junior to senior seasons (2.09 to 1.82). He rebounding numbers fell from 4.99 to 4.36 (-12%). Ryan’s playing time actually decreased from his freshmen to senior seasons, going from 35.3 to 33. His raw scoring average went from 14.5 to 20.1 PPG. That is a pretty respectable gain.

After Colt, productivity gains start to drop of pretty quickly. Technically Denver Holmes saw the next best scoring gain by going from 10.48 to 14.77 points per forty minutes, but he was a little used player his freshmen year only appearing is 26 games and averaging 8.4 minutes per contest. He actually regressed his junior year, going from 14.08 PP40 to 12.38 PP40 before rebounding his senior season.

The rest of the players are pretty similar. Here is an abbreviated version of the stats:

Troy Taylor has good gains in rebounds but not much else.
Per Forty Points – 7.19, 7.78, 8.53, 9.39
Per Forty Assists – 5.71, 6.39, 5.15, 5.31
Per Forty Rebounds – 6.64, 6.94, 7.21, 9.39

Ned Cox showed very little statistical improvement
Per Forty Points – 13.75, 13.39, 14.96, 14.45
Per Forty Assists – 3.75, 2.75, 4.88, 4.01

Kavon Lacey had a minor improvement in assists.
Per Forty Points – 8.16, 9.13, 7.88, 8.23
Per Forty Assists – 3.67, 4.13, 4.70, 4.68

Lewis Jones showed very little statistical improvement and actually regressed when it came to rebounding.
Per Forty Points – 10.41, 13.33, 12.25, 11.35
Per Forty Assists – 1.11, 0.74, 0.92, 2.05
Per Forty Rebounds – 8.22, 6.30, 5.55, 4.47

Clint Hopf had a similar story as Lewis Jones
Per Forty Points – 11.76, 10.43, 13.07, 13.11
Per Forty Rebounds – 8.24, 8.12, 9.25, 7.43

PVT had decent gains in points but declined in rebounding
Per Forty Points – 10.46, 11.5, 9.09, 14.55
Per Forty Rebounds – 2.23, 1.34, 0.73, 0.91

Looking at these numbers, I can’t help but be a little skeptical when I hear claims that we will have a significantly better team as the current group of players matriculate through the program. Additionally, if history is any indicator, there is about a 50% chance a four year player that enters UE will compete all four years, so the current crop of freshmen and sophomores could have a significantly different look in the next 2-3 years. Only time will tell, but it is tough to think that anything other than a year like we had last year with a senior laden team is the ceiling for the UE program under the current staff.

PS – I have an Excel spreadsheet with both raw and per forty statistics for each player’s for year career with games played, MPG, PPG, FG%, 3FG%, FT%, APG, RPG, BPG, and SPG if anyone is interested.




UE11 thats pretty disturbing stats and the loss ratio of players to this coach. Would you have coach Crews info about his players stats and loss of players?

AcesFull
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby AcesFull » Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:02 pm

How about Shy Ely? I know he wasn't with Marty for 4 years, but he improved dramatically when Marty took over for Merfeld.

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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby pafan » Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:08 pm

As David said, you can choose statistics to tell a story. For example, the four guys who graduated last year made significant improvement in field goal percent in their four years.

CR - FR: 37.6% SR: 42.3%
NC - FR: 41.1% SR: 41.5%
TT - FR: 33.8% SR: 46.0%
LJ - FR: 34.2% SR: 40.2%

Was last year the ceiling? My Magic 8 Ball decided to be snarky, so I'm not sure.
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UE11
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby UE11 » Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:24 pm

pafan wrote:As David said, you can choose statistics to tell a story. For example, the four guys who graduated last year made significant improvement in field goal percent in their four years.

CR - FR: 37.6% SR: 42.3%
NC - FR: 41.1% SR: 41.5%
TT - FR: 33.8% SR: 46.0%
LJ - FR: 34.2% SR: 40.2%

Was last year the ceiling? My Magic 8 Ball decided to be snarky, so I'm not sure.


Their FG% did improve, but in the case of Taylor and Jones it is not as significant as it would appear because they both took and made so few shots. His freshmen season, Taylor played in 29 games and hit 33 shots in 21.7 minutes per game for 1.1 shots made per game or 2.097 shots made per 40. His season season he play in 36 games and hit 92 shots in 29.4 minutes per game for 2.5 shots made per game or 3.47 shots made per 40. So from his freshmen year to his senior year, Taylor managed to hit one shot per game. I don't think I would call that significant improvement.

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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby Forever Purple » Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:19 pm

Given the challenges of recruiting to a small liberal arts university in southern Indiana with high academic standards, I think Marty has done a commendable job. Undoubtedly the results would have been better with a larger, more loyal fan base (we need to keep getting the Icemen fans to come out). We have been competitive in conference play for a few years now, and that is something we could not say for many of the pre-Marty years.

UE11
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Re: This team is young. They will get better.. or will they?

Postby UE11 » Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:25 pm

AcesFull wrote:How about Shy Ely? I know he wasn't with Marty for 4 years, but he improved dramatically when Marty took over for Merfeld.


He did improve dramatically while Jason Holsinger appeared to stall after when Marty took over. That is part of the reason I only included 4 year players.


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